Can ‘Wicked’ Wipe Out ‘Moana 2’?

Thanksgiving Clash: Two Films Release

The Thanksgiving holiday weekend showcases a major clash in the film industry, with Wicked and Moana 2 both vying for box office supremacy. Universal Pictures has strategically positioned the release of Wicked for November 17, a week before Disney’s highly anticipated Moana 2, which hits theaters on November 22. This deliberate scheduling sets the stage for a competitive environment, forcing audiences to choose between two standout films during a key holiday viewing period.

Credit: Disney

The implications of this dual release are significant. Families often flock to theaters during the Thanksgiving break, and both films cater to this growing market. While Wicked appeals to fans of the Broadway musical and those interested in star-studded adaptations, Moana 2 rides on the nostalgia and popularity of its predecessor, making the potential audience overlap a critical factor for box office performance.

Early Impressions: Audience Response

Early reviews for Wicked have been resoundingly positive, with critics singing the praises of its vibrant adaptation and stellar performances from Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo. The film has garnered a strong score on Rotten Tomatoes, suggesting it could resonate well with audiences keen on high-quality musical experiences. This excitement translates to heightened expectations for its box office performance, indicating it may attract a significant viewer base during its opening weekend.

Credit: Universal Pictures

Conversely, anticipation for Moana 2 has been more mixed. While fans of the original film are eager to see the continuation of Moana’s adventures, early reviews remain largely speculative. Audience sentiment shows a distinct divide, with some viewers leaning towards Wicked while others prefer the animated charm and storytelling of Moana 2. This divide raises questions about how patrons will allocate their attention and spending when both films premiere.

Financial Forecast: Expected Earnings

Financial analysts have released projections indicating Wicked is poised for a strong opening. It is estimated to earn between $100 and $150 million in its first weekend. If it surpasses the $150 million mark, it would secure a place among 2024’s highest-grossing films upon release, potentially rivaling major hits such as Inside Out 2, which made $154 million.

Credit: Universal

On the other hand, Moana 2 is projected to perform even better, with estimates suggesting an opening weekend gross in the range of $175 to $200 million. This ambitious target would place Moana 2 as one of the year’s highest-grossing films in animated genres. However, achieving this requires the film to attract audiences who might otherwise flock to see Wicked, underscoring the competitive nature of their releases.

Historically, films released close to one another experience varied results. While some can thrive off the momentum of shared audiences, others may suffer losses, overshadowed by their rivals. The dynamics between Wicked and Moana 2 could reshape the immediate financial landscape for both franchises.

Future Impact: What’s at Stake?

The outcome of this cinematic skirmish could have lasting effects on the futures of both films. Should Wicked dominate the box office, it may significantly impede Moana 2‘s performance, with fewer families choosing to see both movies. Such a scenario would prompt Disney to reassess its release strategy, particularly regarding sequels and adaptations that could face similar competition in the future.

Credit: Walt Disney Animation Studios

Alternatively, if Moana 2 succeeds in capturing larger box office numbers, it could reinforce Pixar and Disney’s reputation as leaders in animated storytelling. This success would not only elevate Moana 2 but also bolster the expectation of future animated releases under the Disney banner.

Both Wicked and Moana 2 embody the changing trends in cinema, where audience preferences dictate box office outcomes. The clash at the Thanksgiving box office is not merely a battle for profits; it could set the stage for how studios approach release schedules going forward. As both films prepare to greet audiences, the ultimate impact may extend beyond immediate financial gains, affecting franchise trajectories for years to come.