After ‘Mandalorian & Grogu,’ Disney’s Entire Plan for ‘Star Wars’ May Be in Trouble
The Mandalorian & Grogu (2026) was supposed to signal Star Wars‘ triumphant return to the big screen after seven long years. Instead, its opening weekend numbers are raising uncomfortable questions about whether theatrical Star Wars still has the pull it once did.
The Record No One Wanted
Final four-day Memorial Day weekend numbers reported by Deadline confirm that The Mandalorian & Grogu earned $102 million domestically and $63 million internationally — making it the lowest-grossing opening weekend in the history of the Star Wars franchise. The previous record-holder was Solo: A Star Wars Story (2018), which pulled in $103 million domestically and $65 million internationally over the same holiday weekend.
The margin between the two films is slim on paper, but the real-world gap is likely wider than it looks. Eight years of ticket price inflation mean that fewer actual seats were filled for The Mandalorian & Grogu than the dollar figures alone suggest.
Early tracking had projected a domestic opening closer to $80 million, so the final $102 million outperformed pre-release expectations. But outperforming low expectations is a different thing entirely from delivering the kind of blockbuster result Disney needs to justify its long-term theatrical plans for the franchise. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2019) — the last Star Wars film released before this one — earned $374 million globally during its opening weekend.
Can Disney Break Even?
The Mandalorian & Grogu cost approximately $300 million to produce. With roughly half of that recouped through opening weekend earnings, Disney is likely to reach break-even over the film’s full theatrical run — but a significant profit looks unlikely. That’s a precarious position for a film meant to re-establish Star Wars as a cinematic franchise after years in which the property lived primarily on Disney+.
Audiences have responded more warmly than critics. As of May 25, the film sits at approximately 62% on Rotten Tomatoes from critics and around 82% from general audiences. It seems the people who showed up largely enjoyed what they saw, even if the total audience numbers fell short of what the franchise once commanded.
The Mandalorian & Grogu brings Pedro Pascal back to the role of Din Djarin, the Mandalorian bounty hunter he first played in the Disney+ series. He and Grogu are recruited by the New Republic to rescue Rotta the Hutt, voiced by Jeremy Allen White. Sigourney Weaver also appears in the film as a character named Ward.
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